Archives for posts with tag: Donal Trump

Hours ago I surveyed the current field of major party candidates in the context of two challengers, both of whom hope (almost certainly in vain) for contested conventions.

And in my hurry to marshal a dozen thoughts into as few words as possible, I forgot to mention one important thing: the realignment of the Republican Party could happen contested convention or no. If Trump breezes through the rest of the primary season, and into a successful crowning ceremony in Cleveland next July, he may very well change the nature of the GOP. In fact, it is more likely to occur under a Trump sweep.

Why? Because, unless Trump wins the presidency and governs in a manner more-or-less acceptable to libertarians, social conservatives, Main Streeters and neoconservatives — surely an impossible task — his win will signal the breakdown of the Republican Fantasy.

What is that fantasy? It is the Reaganite vision, wherein social conservatives, business people, free-marketers and neocon warriors all get what they want, and that getting is compatible . . . that these four groups are four great groups that group best together.

What could happen is that Trump brings in moderate Democrats and independents into the Republican fold, sending others hither to the winds.

I suspect that, if Trump is true to his rhetoric, it will be the libertarians, and possibly the neocons, who will make for the exits. That will leave the Republican Party a more nationalist and protectionist — but perhaps less imperialistic — force in modern politics.

You are familiar with the quadrant view of political ideologies, between Authoritarians, right-wingers (pseudo-conservatives), left-wingers (pseudo-progressives) and Libertarians. Right now the authoritarians are partially on the outs. If Trump succeeds, the shift  in the complexion of the GOP would almost certainly move more authoritarian. Here is a good example of the chart, with my perception of the current complexion of Republican constituency, and then with a possible future, more Trumpian:

GOPcomplexion

Of course, one of the things about Trump is: he is unpredictable. He is The Mule.

And as such, who knows, really, how he would govern?

On the other hand, if Trump wins the nomination but loses the presidency, would the more authoritarian voters he pulled in change the permanent complexion of the Party of Lincoln? It seems doubtful, but considering how unsuccessful the coalition has been, despite its obvious persistence, its unraveling sure seems inevitable.

Another thing I neglected to mention concerns the punishing vote.

We spend a lot of time in politics talking about what people are for: for this, for that.

But Obama got in office in part out of a reaction against Bush in particular and Republicans in general. Voters — especially the marginal, independent voter — voted Democrat to punish Republicans. Who truly did need punishing.

Will marginal voters reverse themselves, and punish the Democrats, who really should be punished?

By talking to Democrats, I’d guess no. But the logic of the marginal voter suggests that punishing Democrats may indeed be a factor, and may lead to a lot of Trump votes in November. Remember: democracy’s chief success and function is not the expression of any general will, but the peaceful removal of individuals and groups from power.

Trouble is, it won’t be a simple two-party field in November, and there is almost as much Hillary Hate as Trump Hate. This suggests to me not only that many current Bernie Sanders voters will vote Trump, but a not-insignificant number will protest and vote Libertarian. As in the Libertarian Party and its presumptive nominee Gary Johnson, on the ballot, I am told, in every state in the union. And Johnson may finally take those quasi-libertarians who usually vote Republican. The question then becomes, of the punishment-prone voters, how many will vote Trump and how many will vote Johnson? Could Johnson help Hillary get the election?

Or could the eventual Electoral College make-up send the election to the House of Representatives?

We live in interesting times.

 

twv

 

 

BOSCH-trump

Barack Obama has been a horrible president.

So: Blame Bush.

Not a joke.

Sure, the prez himself has coasted seven years blaming his predecessor. But we have the better rationale to play that hand. How so? The reason we got stuck with a cool dude sporting the BHO initials is that GWB was so bad. And not just on foreign policy grounds.

The pendulum swings.

Americans voted for Barack Hussein Obama in great part in reaction to the sheer awfulness of the Bush Administration. They chose a smooth-tongued, dark-skinned American “community activist” who had been pampered by the university system and the political power structure over a bumble-tongued, redneck-pretending fratboy who had been born into a political family with its vast influence and network of oil money. Americans had so come to despise this man that they chose his seeming opposite, even if the replacement sported a name that sounded like the alien monikers of the two main targets of the man to be replaced: Osama bin Laden and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein.

But Americans also voted for Obama to seal the healing needed in America over racial divisions and antagonisms. But under Obama and the Democrats, the racial divide has deepened, gotten uglier. The constant socialistic demands for more “free” stuff, along with renewed charges of systemic racism in police-citizen relations, has combined with the far left’s “Social Justice Warrior” crowing and bullying on college campuses and the Internet to dominate popular culture in an overtly (and absurd) “politically correct” (p.c.) manner.

And average Americans — not just (though perhaps primarily) white folks — have had enough.

The pendulum has swung back, ridden by a man who makes headlines gleefully flouting the p.c. code: Donald Trump.

And he is grabbing more than the Archie Bunkerish grump vote. He is getting support from all sorts of people who have had it with neo-Marxist overkill regarding race and gender, primarily students living charmed lives who think it “oppression” when they hear an unwanted opinion.

Normal Americans, writes Rob Dreher in The American Conservative, “know that the academic elites despise them and their culture, and are going to try to educate their children into hating themselves and their culture. . . . [A] vote for Trump is a vote against the class that’s doing this p.c. indoctrination.”

“Cheering on the likes of Trump,” Reason’s Robby Soave suggests, “might just be one way for them to cope with [the] perceived reality” . . . of leftist cultural hegemony.

If Trump wins, blame the Left.


 

Image is by the great Bosch Fawstin, excerpt: see the original

There will almost certainly be follow-up to this piece, as I try to understand the mindset of the average American. Not an easy task.